Fractal Thoughts

Random observations of life

Gambler’s fallacy

When waiting for the bus, you wouldn’t normally expect to fall for gambler’s fallacy.

There is a stop in my town where you get to experience that. The walk to your location is about fifteen minutes, but the bus takes you in two. Several busses pass there every hour — or so the timetables lead you to believe. The timer shows five, two, zero minutes: no bus. You keep standing there, because after five minutes the sunken cost fallacy also kicks in, and group psychology tells you that four other people can’t be wrong. As the numbers roll over on the screen, you look up the next one. Not all busses can vanish into thin air!

In the end you would have been quicker there by walking. Next time you walk, you see the bus drive — on time — right past your spot.

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